中國夢能讓你「發大財」嗎？中研院社會學研究所副研究員吳介民於日前（19日）的講座指出，台灣人必須先破解認為中國經濟大好的迷思。他指出中國與台灣、韓國同樣身為「半邊陲國家1」，且正面臨外資撤離、美中貿易⋯⋯

CNN 對台積電董事長劉德音的專訪翻譯逐字稿 On GPS: Can China afford to attack Taiwan? Fareed Zakaria, GPS In a rare interview with Mark Liu, chairman of Taiwan's TSMC — Asia's most valuable company — Fareed asks about the ongoing tension between the self-governing island and Beijing. Source: CNN Fareed Zakaria: 如果中國攻打台灣，那會如何影響台灣，以及台灣的經濟? What would happen to Taiwan, and to the Taiwanese economy, if China were to invade? 劉德音: 噢，當然，戰場上沒有贏家；所有人都是輸家。台灣人已在台灣建立起自己的民主系統，然後他們想過自己的生活。雖然半導體產業對台灣整體經濟來說十分重要，但如果真的發生戰爭的話，那或許半導體業不是最需要我們擔心的事。我們真正需要擔心的是這場戰爭將會摧毀以具有穩定秩序的世界經貿活動(the destruction of the world rule-based order)；整個地理政治將會有劇烈的變化。 Oh, of course, the war brings no winners. Everybody is losers. And people in Taiwan has earned their democratic system in Taiwan, and they want to choose their way of life. And we think that indeed the chip supply is a critical business and economy in Taiwan, but had it -- had it been a War in Taiwan, probably the chip is not the most important thing we should worry about because this invasion, if it comes after, is the destruction of the world rule-based order. There is no -- the geopolitical landscape would totally change. Fareed Zakaria: 你會擔心台灣目前在中國半導體供應鏈上所扮演的核心角色嗎? 這會對台灣造成甚麼危險嗎? 還是說其實有戰略上的嚇阻效果? 畢竟有時大家會說台積電是台灣的護國神山。不過即便如此，我們還是知道中國一直都強調「我們對台灣有絕對的主權，而且這是我們不可退讓的中國資產」。 Do you worry that Taiwan is now so integral to the Chinese supply chain at the high end?.. Does that create a danger for Taiwan? Or is it a deterrent? People sometimes talk about the TSMC shield, but you could equally see Beijing saying we need to have total control of this. This is the most valuable asset and it's outside our borders. 劉德音: 嗯，沒有國家能夠用武力控制台積電的，因為如果中國解放軍真的入侵台積電，台積電就完全不能運作了，因為這是一個十分複雜的龐大組織。台積電從原料、化學物質、設備零件、工程軟體與檢測等各面向都隨時都需要跟外面的世界，歐洲、日本、美國相互溝通合作。是在世界上的所有人的努力才能讓這間公司，台積電，能夠正常運作。所以假如你用武力侵占了台積電，那台積電就不可能正常運作了，也就沒有所謂的台積電了。至於我們與中國的生意，目前中國大概占了我們 10% 的生意吧，但我們只會跟一般企業與消費者做生意，我們不會將晶片賣給軍事組織。我們覺得說，消費市場是很重要的，而且是生生不息的。如果消費者有需求，那我想，跟他們做生意並不是甚麼壞事。 Ok. Nobody can control TSMC by force. If you take a military force or invasion, you will render TSMC factory not operable because this is such a sophisticated manufacturing facility. It depends on the real-time connection with the outside world, with Europe, with Japan, with the US, from materials, to chemicals, to spare parts, to engineering software, diagnosis. It's everybody's effort to make this factory operable. So if you take it over by force, you can no longer make it operable. In terms of the China business, its today composed about 10% of our business. We only work with consumer. We don't work with militaries entity. We think that is, the consumer pool, is important, and it is vibrant. And if they need us, it's not a bad thing. Fareed Zakaria: 解釋一下，為什麼這(台積電跟中國做生意)不是壞事? Expand on that. Why is it not a bad thing? 劉德音: 噢，這是因為我們停止運作後將會為中國帶來巨大的經濟損失，因為他們最先進的半導體晶片突然就這樣消失了，所以他們在做這種"武力犯台"之前，我想必定會三思而後行的。你看烏克蘭戰爭，我想我們都得從中好好反省與汲取些經驗。人們認為烏克蘭跟台灣非常像，但我得說台灣跟烏克蘭非常不一樣。想想烏俄戰爭對各國帶來的種種負面影響，對任何國家來說都不是好事。從西方世界、俄羅斯與烏克蘭的角度來看，都是輸家，沒有人從中獲得好處。我真的認為大家都應該要好好反省這場戰爭究竟為我們人類帶來了甚麼，想想我們應該要如何避免戰爭，想想我們該如何確保全球經濟的穩定，如何讓全球經濟能持續生生不息，而且也讓我們以公平的方式相互競爭，這是我的想法。 Oh, because our interruption will create great economic turmoil in either side in China because suddenly their most advanced components supply disappeared. And -- and it is an interruption, I must say. So people will think twice on this. I think the Ukraine war, I think we should draw lessons from it. People think Ukraine will make connected with the Taiwan Strait. They are very different. But in case you think about imperil, Ukraine war is not good for any of the sides. From the Western world, from Russia, from Ukraine, it's lose, lose, lose scenarios. All three sides ought to draw lessons. I think they do. And we should use that lessons to look at the lens on Taiwan. How can we avoid a war? How can we ensure no -- the world economy -- the engine of the world economy continue humming and let's have a fair competition. That's what I think. Fareed Zakaria: 就你看來，你會怎麼解釋台灣的經濟奇蹟? 在過去五十年裡，台灣經濟成功達到每年有 5% 的經濟成長。世上很少能夠有著像台灣經濟成長幅度這樣的國家，你怎麼看呢? From your perspective, what explains the Taiwan miracle? This is now a place that has grown at 5% a year for five decades. There are very few places in the world that have managed that. What explains the Taiwan miracle? 劉德音: 從外人的角度來看，會覺得這是一個奇蹟。但對認真工作的台灣人來說，這只是奮鬥的過程。老實說我覺得，相較於其他國家，尤其是在亞洲，我覺得台灣其中一個特點在於它那和平的社會。從 1949 年到現在，台灣一直都是相當和平的。這是個和平的地方。而在這期間，台灣從威權主義社會轉型成民主國家，變成一個民主社會。而如果你從整個世界的角度來看這點，如此這般和平的社會轉型是相當神奇的事情，我們是非常幸運的。而如果真要說奇蹟，我想台灣的確還有一點是相當與眾不同的，那就是我們的教育制度。在我還小的時候，只有 10% 的人上大學。如今有 80% 的年輕人擁有大學文憑。我們政府設立了非常多間大學，所以對於所有年輕人來說，如果你想讀大學，那一定可以讀，只要你願意花時間，所以這建立了一個相對高品質的社會環境，以面對未來可能的種種挑戰，這是我覺得非常非常特別的一點。 Looking from outside, it appears to be a miracle. For the people working hard on the island, it is just a history of fighting. I think, to be honest, compared with other nations, particularly in Asia, I think one of the key components in Taiwan is a peaceful society. It maintained peace since 1949 till today, 70 years. It's a peaceful island. And during that period of time, Taiwan has transformed from authoritarian state into a democratic state, became a democratic society. This is marvelous because if you look at the nations around the world, having such a smooth transition, peaceful transition, we are fortunate, to be honest. But if you talk about the miracles, I also think there's one thing that is very distinctly different, is the education system. When I was young, only 10% of the young people entered college or universities. Today, 80% of the young people have college or university degrees. The government set up many colleges, universities. And every kid, if you want to go to university, you can go, and just so long as you spend time. So that has created a relatively good quality of population in Taiwan, posing for any change ahead. That's why I think that's very, very special. Fareed Zakaria: 為什麼其他人都很難做出你做的晶片呢? 我現在在想的是你們的七奈米，美國有非常多擁有輝煌歷史的偉大公司，像是 Intel。而中國則是撒了數十億的資金去開設晶圓廠，但都沒有人能做出你們的晶片。 Why is it so difficult for anyone to make the chips that you make? And I'm thinking now about the 7 nanometer. The Americans have these great companies that have huge history, like Intel. The Chinese pour tens of billions of dollars into new companies. But no one can make the chips you make. 劉德音: 嗯，可以啊，只是晚幾年而已，就...哈哈哈哈... Well, they can, just a few years later. It's ... hahaha ... Fareed Zakaria: 但這就是重點啊... But that's all the difference in this business. 劉德音: 沒錯，這是唯一的關鍵。我想我們是把半導體技術本身看做是一門科學，但也是一門生意。這不是組裝零件那樣而已。當然，這一切都得歸功於我們與其他夥伴的合作。我們的工程師甚至因為 COVID 而戴上 AR (擴充虛擬實境) 跟遠在荷蘭以及加州的工程師合作，我們就是這麼密切的合作，共同推進最先進的半導體技術。我只能說這麼多了，沒辦法跟你透漏與解釋所有細節。 You're right. That's all the difference. I think we treat the semiconductor technology itself as a business, as a science. It's not assembly workers. And, of course, I credit this to be working with our partners. Even the COVID time, our engineer used the AR, augmented reality, lenses to work with engineer in Netherland, work with engineer in California. And that's how close we work together. And together, we push the frontier of the semiconductor technologies. I cannot tell you everything why. Fareed Zakaria: 哦當然你不可能跟我說可口可樂的配方的...哈哈...。好，最後一個問題，在技術與經濟層面上，你會怎麼看待未來? 你的願景是甚麼? You're not going to tell me the secret formula of coca cola. Finally, tell me what you think will look like in the future, technologically, economically. What are your hopes? 劉德音: 我希望我們不會因為很接近中國而被歧視(discriminated)。不論我們跟中國的關係是甚麼，台灣就是台灣。你得把台灣視為一個整體，視為一個充滿活力與衝勁的社會。我們希望能為世界帶來創新，並持續不斷地推進未來，而不會因為我們跟中國有些紛爭而害怕我們。這實在是不值得。 I hope that we don't get discriminated because we are close to China. No matter your relationship with China, Taiwan is Taiwan. You have to look at Taiwan as, by itself, a vibrant society. We want to unleash the innovation for the world, into the future, continuously, and not to be scared because we have some dispute with our neighbors. And that is not worth it. Fareed Zakaria: 這你這樣好像是在跟世界說 ── 如果我理解錯誤請糾正我 ── 不要害怕中國說的那些話。因為中國永遠不可能接手台灣。台灣經濟是建立於全球合作，建立於信任與公開透明之上。如果他們侵入台灣，他們會發現實際上他們甚麼也沒拿到。 But it seems to me you're saying to the world -- correct me if I'm wrong -- you're saying to the world, don't be scared by what China is saying because the Chinese will never be able to take. The Taiwanese economy is built on this global collaboration, -- on trust, on openness, on -- they'll find they've taken over nothing, if they come in. 劉德音: 正確，沒錯，我的確是這麼想的，所以我們大家只會為彼此帶來災難，每一方都是如此。雖然我們得做最壞打壞，但還是盡量往最好的方向看齊。 Correct, yes, I do believe so. So the world can only create problem on three sides, all three sides. And that is -- we need to prepare the worst, but we should hope for the best. Fareed Zakaria: 你剛有提到烏克蘭戰爭是 lose-lose-lose，所以你希望可以 win-win-win。 So you said about the Ukraine war, it's lose-lose-lose. Your hope is for a win-win-win. 劉德音: 對，如果真的開戰了，那就會變成這樣。如果一切和平，那麼就只跟我們三方的競爭策略有關，我想在商場上沒有人會想要發生戰爭，所以我們又為什麼要再跳進這個陷阱(戰爭)裡呢? Yes, if you have a war, then it will be that. If this is peaceful, well, it's upon the competition strategies on all three sides. And I think that nobody in the business world want to see a war happen. And why do we jump again into another trap? Fareed Zakaria: 感謝你寶貴的時間。 Thank you for taking so much time 劉德音: 很高興能參與訪談。 We enjoy talking to you. (zero game 2)(sun over mountain)(praying)