A Covid Update 新冠病毒最新資料
We have the latest on the Delta variant.
By David Leonhardt
Published June 14, 2021Updated June 15, 2021
It’s time for one of this newsletter’s occasional updates on the state of the pandemic. The brief version: The situation continues to look reassuring for anybody who is vaccinated — but has become more worrisome for anybody who is not, largely because of the Delta variant.
Here are three more detailed points:
1. Cases are no longer falling 確診數不再下降
The news about Covid-19 has been mostly positive in the U.S. over recent months. The vaccines continue to work well against every variant, and the number of Americans who have gotten a shot continues to rise.
But the U.S. still faces two problems. First, the pace of vaccinations has slowed, and a substantial share of Americans — close to one third — remains hesitant about getting a shot. These unvaccinated Americans will remain vulnerable to Covid outbreaks and to serious symptoms, or even death.
Second, the Delta variant — which appears to be both more contagious and more severe than earlier versions of the virus — is spreading rapidly within the U.S., after having first been identified in India. It now accounts for about 10 percent of cases, according to Dr. Scott Gottlieb, a former F.D.A. commissioner.
第二,Delta變型病毒,較先前的病毒更易傳染和嚴重,在印度首次被認定後,在美國很快的傳播,目前有10%的確診數,依據美國前食藥局局長Dr. Scott Gottlieb表示。
Together, these two forces help explain why new cases have stopped falling:
Many experts are concerned that cases will eventually start to rise as Delta becomes the dominant form of the virus. “We are vulnerable,” Dr. Kavita Patel of the Brookings Institution told Yahoo News. On Twitter yesterday, Dr. Robert Wachter of the University of California, San Francisco, wrote: “I’ll now bet we’ll see significant (incl. many hospitalizations/deaths) surges this fall in low-vaccine populations due to combo of seasonality, Delta’s nastiness, & ‘back to normal’ behavior.”
很多專家開始擔心,確診數將開始上升,當Delta成為主要的病毒形式漫延,我們會很容易受到攻擊,Brookings Institution的Dr. Kavita Patel告訴Yahoo新聞社,另外加州舊金山大學Dr. Robert Wachter昨天(6/15)在推特寫到:我敢打賭,今年秋天我們會看到在疫苗施打率低的地區,會有很多住院和死亡的案例飆升,由於季節的變化、Delta變型病毒的危險性和恢復正常生活習慣等因素所造成。
2. But the vaccines work 各種疫苗是有效的
In addition to being more contagious, Delta also appears to be more severe. As my colleague Keith Bradsher reports about southeastern China, where the variant has been spreading: “Patients are becoming sicker and their conditions are worsening much more quickly.” (China has more detailed data than many other countries, because it conducts rapid, widespread testing.)
Delta除了傳染力強之外,它更為嚴峻,作者的同事Keith Bradsher報導了這類病毒在中國東南部的地方擴散:患者感覺不適而且很快的惡化。(中國比其它國家有更細節的資料,因為中國有實施快速普篩檢測)
But there is still one very big piece of encouraging news: The vaccines continue to work extremely well against the variants, based on the evidence so far. The best performing vaccines vastly reduce the number of Covid cases of any kind and virtually eliminate death.
“The Delta variant is by far the most contagious variant of this virus we have seen in the entire pandemic,” Dr. Ashish Jha said yesterday. “The good news is the data suggests that, if you’ve been fully vaccinated, you remain protected, that the vaccines hold up.”
目前的Delta變型病毒是整個流行病中,最會傳播感染的病毒,Ashish Jha醫生昨天(6/15)表示,好的消息資料顯示:假如你接種過完全的疫苗,你就會受到充份的保護。
The clearest place to see this pattern is Britain, where the Delta variant has spread widely and where the vaccination rate is high. In Britain, there is “still no sign of increase in deaths, well after the strain has become dominant,” as Dr. Eric Topol of the Scripps Research Translational Institute noted.
最顯而易見的地方,就是英國的案例,Delta變型病毒在英國廣泛的傳播,由於它的疫苗施打率高,當這新的病毒株在英國橫行時,並無發現死亡上升的跡象, the Scripps Research Translational Institute的Dr. Eric Topol特別提到。
3. The lesson is clear 這課題非常清楚
Nothing is more important than vaccination.
Persuading more Americans to get vaccinated will save some of their lives. And a more rapid global vaccination program can save millions of lives around the world. Delta already appears to be at least partly responsible for rising case counts in several African countries, Russia and elsewhere.
“If you’re fully vaxxed, I wouldn’t be too worried, especially if you’re in a highly vaxxed region,” Wachter wrote. “If you’re not vaccinated: I’d be afraid. Maybe even very afraid.”
More on the virus: Novavax announced today that a clinical trial of its vaccine in the U.S. and Mexico found an efficacy rate of about 90 percent.
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