Notes from a call with Edward Ryan MD, Director of International Infectious Disease at Massachusetts General Hospital:

1 Close to 100% of the positive cases in MA are Omicron. Delta is almost completely gone from New England.
2 This surge will peak sometime between 1/10 and 1/21 and then begin a quick downhill journey of two to four weeks.
3 We will end up with a 20-50% positivity rate.
4 February will be clean up mode, March will begin to return to "normal"
5 Omicron lives in your nose and upper respiratory area which is what makes it so contagious. It isn't able to bond with your lungs like the other variants.
6 The increased hospitalizations should be taken with a grain of salt as most of them are secondary admissions (i.e. people coming in for surgery, broken bones, etc. who are tested for COVID)
7 We won't need a booster for omicron because they wouldn't be able to develop one before it's completely gone and we're all going to get it which will give us the immunity we need to get through it.
8 COVID will join the 4 other coronaviruses we deal with that cause the common cold, upper respiratory infections, RSV, etc. It will become a pediatric disease mainly affecting young children with no immunity.
9 40% of those infected will be asymptomatic
10 Rapid tests are 50-80% sensitive to those with symptoms, only 30-60% sensitive to those without symptoms
11 Contact tracing is worthless because we're all going to get it and there's no way we could keep up with it.
12 We are fighting the last war with COVID and should be pivoting back to normal life, but society isn't quite ready for it yet.
13 There is no need to stay home from work or to be a hermit unless you're immunocompromised or 85 or older, but he does recommend staying away from large gatherings for the next six weeks.
14 Spring/Summer will be really nice!

Overall a great presentation. Lot of good news.
近 31 日
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第一時間,直覺認為有可能是假的. 內容似乎太「美好」,以至於令人懷疑。 “Too good to be true”的那種感覺。

全世界只有中文媒體在散佈這種虛假信息 我們只能說大部分人都很樂觀:奧密克戎毒株引發的疫情預計在1月底達到峰值。 2月4日將進入清理模式,3月將開始樂觀的當作「正常」流感來處理。


麻省綜合醫院已發新聞稿表示該文章非院內DrRyan本人發出,而且缺乏上下文,並有誤導讀者之傾向。 新聞稿原文如下: We are aware of COVID-19 information circulating online evidently reflecting an individual’s personal notes from listening to a talk by Edward Ryan, MD, director of Global Infectious Diseases at MGH. These notes lack context, details, and nuance. For instance, the role that vaccines play in mitigating severe disease or death was not included, and individuals with comorbid conditions should continue to take extra precautions to minimize contracting COVID irrelevant of age. - Massachusetts General Hospital https://www.massgeneral.org/news/press-release/mgh-statement-on-dr-ryan

本訊息有 1 則查核回應
Lopi 認為 含有個人意見
引用自 Lopi 查核回應
(1)雖然 Edward Ryan 醫生的確存在, 也確實在美國麻州總醫院工作。但是本文的原出處不明,網上找不到,也不見於主要媒體報導。可能是假借Dr.Ryan的po文。參考[1]
(2)有關Omicron會不會結束 Pandemic 成 Endemic的文章,可以參考主媒報導[2].

- 5. Omicron 存在於您的鼻子和上呼吸道區域,這就是它具有傳染性的原因。它無法像其他突變體一樣與你的肺結合。
- 7. 我們不需要針對Omicron 的加強針,因為他們無法在它完全消失之前開發一個加強針,而我們都會被感染,這將為我們提供克服它所需的免疫力。
《mRNA疫苗加強針雖然不能完全防止感染,但能夠提高對人體對 Omicron 的抵抗力、減少重症和住院率》
- 8. COVID 將加入已經在人類傳播的其他4 種冠狀病毒,這些冠狀病毒會引起普通感冒、上呼吸道感染、RSV等。它將成為一種兒科疾病,主要影響沒有免疫力的幼兒。
《COVID 會不會成為普通感冒,現在作結論還為時過早。》


[1]萬維讀者網 查核:美國權威醫生關於Omicron的通話記錄
[2]Could Omicron Hasten the Transition From Pandemic to Endemic?


新冠疫情爆发两年后,美国正在经历前所未有的 Omicron 变异株大传播。网络上,特别是微信群里,各种博眼球的信息与病毒的传播力相比,毫不逊色。这几天在许多微信群见到一则麻州总医院 Edward Ryan 医生的通话记录,其可信度如何呢?首先,这位 Edward Ryan

1 則回應被作者自行刪除。

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